长江有色：现货贴水走阔及库存累积预期施压 25日铝价或下跌

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the aluminum market is under pressure due to insufficient domestic fundamental drivers, with expectations of a decline in spot aluminum prices today [1][2][3] - The macroeconomic environment is characterized by a decline in the US dollar index and a rise in stock markets, while oil prices are falling, leading to a mixed market sentiment [2] - The London Metal Exchange (LME) reported a slight increase in aluminum inventory, which may contribute to the bearish outlook for aluminum prices [1][2] Group 2 - Domestic supply remains stable, with little change in electrolytic aluminum production capacity, but seasonal consumption is weak, leading to cautious purchasing behavior from downstream buyers [2] - The current market is experiencing low trading activity, with an expanding spot discount and increasing social inventory expectations, further pressuring aluminum prices [2] - The latest spot aluminum prices reported are 22,030 CNY/ton in Changjiang and 21,960 CNY/ton in Guangdong, reflecting a slight increase [1]