Why is Crude Oil Stuck in Neutral?

Core Insights - Crude oil prices are experiencing a bearish trend, with NYMEX crude oil trading at $60.65 per barrel on November 4, 2025, and declining to under $58 by late December 2025 [2]. - Both WTI and Brent crude oil futures have shown lower highs and lower lows since their peaks in March 2022, indicating a persistent bearish market [4][5]. - Several factors, including increased production from OPEC+, changes in U.S. energy policy, and seasonal demand fluctuations, are contributing to the downward pressure on crude oil prices [6]. Price Trends - NYMEX crude oil futures reached a low of $55.12 in April 2025 and slightly lower at $54.89 in December 2025, before recovering to $57.65 per barrel [4]. - Brent crude oil futures hit a low of $58.39 in April 2025 and remained below $61.70 in December 2025, with a slight recovery to $58.72 on December 16, 2025 [5]. Market Dynamics - The U.S. has released significant amounts of crude oil from its strategic reserves, impacting supply and prices [6]. - Economic weakness in China, a major crude oil consumer, has further reduced demand, contributing to the bearish trend [6]. - The current U.S. administration's shift to a more production-friendly energy policy aims to achieve energy independence and reduce OPEC+'s pricing power, which may influence future market conditions [6].