年末车市未见翘尾行情：部分消费者开始观望，业内期待补贴接续

Core Insights - The automotive market is experiencing a quiet end to the year, with consumers showing a strong wait-and-see attitude, contrasting sharply with the usual year-end rush [1][9] - The decline in consumer activity is attributed to changes in policy, particularly the phasing out of various subsidies and the upcoming adjustment of the new energy vehicle purchase tax [2][12] - Industry experts predict a significant drop in December retail sales, with an expected year-on-year decrease of 12.7% [2][12] Consumer Behavior - Consumers are hesitant to make purchases, anticipating the continuation of national subsidies in the coming year and expecting new models with enhanced features at lower prices [2][12] - The automotive market saw its first year-on-year decline in sales in November, with approximately 2.701 million vehicles sold, a 4.4% decrease compared to the previous year [2][12] - Many consumers are waiting for the release of popular new models expected in 2026, contributing to the current market stagnation [2][12][13] Market Dynamics - The pace of new product iterations is accelerating, leading to increased consumer indecision as many wait for better deals [3][13] - The automotive price war has cooled, with many dealerships adopting a more subdued approach to sales, lacking the usual festive promotions [6][14] - The National Market Supervision Administration has issued guidelines to prevent irrational price competition, which has further impacted sales strategies [7][15] Future Outlook - The automotive industry is expected to face growth challenges in 2026, with many analysts predicting a mere 2% increase in sales, totaling around 28.2 million vehicles [8][16] - There is a consensus that consumer-side policies will need to be supported to stimulate demand, with expectations for new subsidy policies to be introduced [8][16][17] - The "two new" policies have shown significant effects, with over 2.5 trillion yuan in sales driven by trade-in programs, benefiting over 360 million people [8][16]