多家大行料金价入4500-4700 结构需支撑2026看涨

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is entering 2026 with a historical upward trend, supported by structural demand rather than speculative trading, despite low market participation [2][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - As of December 25, 2025, spot gold is trading around $4,479.42 per ounce, showing a slight decline of 0.11% with a daily high of $4,525.70 and a low of $4,448.32, indicating a short-term bearish sentiment [1]. - Major banks forecast gold prices to range between $4,500 and $4,700, with potential to reach $5,000 if macroeconomic conditions persist [1]. Group 2: Structural Demand - The core drivers for gold price increases in 2024-2025 are rooted in policy uncertainties, with the U.S. facing high fiscal spending, persistent inflation pressures, and declining real yields [2]. - Central banks are a crucial support for the structural gold market, maintaining over half of their reserves in gold, while countries like Japan hold significantly less, indicating substantial reallocation potential [3]. - The demand from central banks is characterized as structural rather than cyclical, with consistent purchasing power despite high prices [3]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - The gold price failed to break through $4,502, indicating strong resistance at this level, with key support levels at $4,467 and $4,454 [4]. - The market is expected to continue a volatile pattern, with potential for upward movement if resistance levels are breached [4].