机构看金市：12月25日

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut probability has decreased, leading to a significant drop in precious metals prices, particularly silver, while the long-term outlook for precious metals remains positive due to various supportive factors [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Precious metals experienced a divergence in performance, with a notable drop influenced by better-than-expected initial jobless claims data, which fell to 214,000, below expectations and previous values [1][3]. - Silver prices have recently seen volatility, touching $72 before retreating, driven by macro liquidity easing and rising interest in platinum and palladium [2]. - The recent U.S. employment data exceeded expectations, putting short-term pressure on gold and silver prices, with initial jobless claims at 214,000, lower than the anticipated 224,000 [3]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. GDP for Q3 showed an annualized quarter-on-quarter growth of 4.3%, surpassing expectations of 3.3%, influenced by healthcare prices [3]. - The GDP price index for Q3 was reported at 3.8%, above the expected 2.7%, indicating resilience in price levels despite economic uncertainties [3]. - The PCE price index year-on-year for Q3 was 2.7%, higher than the previous 2.4%, reflecting ongoing inflationary pressures [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Despite potential short-term consolidation in gold prices due to profit-taking and lack of new market catalysts, the overall upward trend remains solid, with expectations for continued strength into 2026 [4]. - UBS analysts suggest that while the recent surge in precious metals is notable, the lack of clear driving factors makes short-term predictions challenging, advocating for a cautious approach [4]. - The combination of the Federal Reserve's dovish stance, central bank gold purchases, ETF inflows, and a weaker dollar is expected to support precious metals prices in the medium to long term [1][3].