库存紧张+需求激增支撑 白银面临技术性回调

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices are expected to potentially exceed $100 per ounce by 2026, marking one of the largest price surges in history due to increased investment demand and tight short-term inventory [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - In late December, silver futures and spot prices accelerated upward, driven by a surge in investment demand and tight short-term inventory [1] - Global silver ETF holdings have significantly increased since October, with institutions and high-net-worth individuals purchasing and hoarding physical silver, which has been a key factor in driving up spot prices [1] - December is a traditional delivery month, with COMEX silver futures deliveries expected to continue until the end of the month, and recent delivery volumes have exceeded seasonal averages [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand - The current tight supply situation is exacerbated by global silver inventories reaching near historical lows, making it difficult to quickly alleviate the supply constraints [1] - There is increased demand not only for near-month contracts but also for longer-dated contracts, indicating that the recent price strength reflects both short-term supply-demand imbalances and medium- to long-term price expectations [2] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The market sentiment remains bullish, with silver bulls still in control, although there are signs of fatigue in the upward trend [3] - The next key upward target for silver prices is set at $75.00, while a pressure from bears could see a test of $66.75 as a critical observation point for buying interest [3] - Expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy remain a key driving factor, with a greater than 70% probability that the Fed will cut rates by at least 50 basis points by 2026 [2]