Counterpoint Research：2025年Q3全球晶圆代工2.0市场营收同比增长17% 达到848亿美元

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor industry has officially entered the "Wafer Foundry 2.0" era, characterized by deep integration of manufacturing, packaging, and testing, driven by the global AI boom, leading to higher quality growth [1] Group 1: Market Growth and Projections - The global wafer foundry 2.0 market revenue is expected to grow by 17% year-on-year in Q3 2025, reaching $84.8 billion, primarily driven by sustained demand for AI GPUs in front-end wafer manufacturing and back-end advanced packaging [1] - The overall wafer foundry 2.0 market revenue growth rate for 2025 is projected to be around 15%, with pure wafer foundry market expected to grow by 26% [8] Group 2: Company Performance - TSMC continues to lead the pure wafer foundry market with a remarkable 41% year-on-year revenue growth, driven by the ramp-up of 3nm chips for Apple's flagship smartphones and strong demand from AI accelerator customers like NVIDIA and AMD for 4/5nm processes [4] - Non-TSMC wafer foundries experienced a slowdown, achieving only 6% year-on-year growth in Q3 2025, down from 11% in Q2 2025 [5] - Non-memory IDM companies have shown signs of recovery with a 4% year-on-year growth, indicating the end of the inventory destocking cycle, led by Texas Instruments with a 14% growth [5] Group 3: Advanced Packaging Trends - The OSAT industry saw a 10% year-on-year revenue growth in Q3 2025, up from 5% in the same period of 2024, with major contributions from ASE and SPIL, benefiting from TSMC's overflow orders to meet AI GPU and AI ASIC demands [5] - Advanced packaging capacity is expected to increase significantly by 100% in 2026, with AI GPUs and AI ASICs becoming the main growth drivers for OSAT companies [5] - TSMC is expected to focus on NVIDIA's AI GPU platforms in 2026, creating strategic opportunities for OSAT companies, while Broadcom and others must seek partnerships outside TSMC's ecosystem to ensure CoWoS-S capacity supply [8]