供需结构环比小幅改善 瓶片期货主力合约偏强震荡

Core Viewpoint - The main focus is on the fluctuations in bottle chip futures prices, which are expected to follow raw material price movements in the short term [2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of March 15, the main contract for bottle chip futures showed a strong oscillation, peaking at 6066.00 yuan, with a current price of 6040.00 yuan, reflecting a 1.21% increase [1]. - The short-term price of bottle chips is anticipated to be influenced by the volatility of raw material prices, particularly due to rising international crude oil prices following increased U.S. actions against Venezuelan oil tankers [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Domestic production of polyester bottle chips remains stable at 333,600 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 73.05%, unchanged from the previous period [2]. - The average weekly capacity utilization rate in China's polyester industry is reported at 86.9%, showing a slight increase of 0.06% from the previous week [2]. - In terms of exports, China exported 523,100 tons of polyester bottle chips in October, an increase of 55,300 tons or 1.83% from the previous month, with a cumulative export volume of 5,332,100 tons from January to October 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 657,400 tons or 14.06% [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The short-term operating rate for bottle chip factories has decreased to 71.9%, down 0.3% month-on-month [2]. - Demand for bottle chips has seen a gradual recovery in soft drink consumption since December, with a total export volume of 5.81 million tons from January to November, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12% [2]. - The recent increase in raw material prices is expected to provide support, leading to a slight improvement in the supply-demand structure, although the primary focus remains on cost dynamics, suggesting that future movements will likely follow cost trends [2].