长安期货刘娜：供给端压力有所缓解 短期橡胶有冲高可能

Core Viewpoint - The recent performance of natural rubber and 20 rubber has shown significant strength, with both commodities breaking previous highs and stabilizing above the 60-day moving average, indicating a shift in the technical outlook from bearish to bullish [3][5]. Supply Side - In November, the ANRPC reported a natural rubber production of 1,167 thousand tons, showing a decline both month-on-month and year-on-year, which is unusual for this time of year. This decrease may be attributed to production losses from flooding in southern Thailand [3][5]. - Despite the recent decline, the ANRPC forecasts a 1.1% increase in natural rubber production for the first eleven months of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024, suggesting a slight growth trend [3][5]. Inventory - As of December 19, the inventory of Qingdao dry rubber was 515,200 tons, up from 498,800 tons the previous week. The total social inventory also increased to 1,182,000 tons from 1,153,000 tons, indicating a continued accumulation of stock [4][6]. Demand Side - The ANRPC reported a rubber consumption of 911 thousand tons in November, reflecting a growth of approximately 1.2% year-on-year and month-on-month. However, the consumption for the first eleven months of 2025 is expected to show a slight decline compared to the previous year [4][8]. - According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the production of rubber tire outer casings in China for November 2025 was 10,182,800 units, a decrease of 2.6% year-on-year, while the cumulative production from January to November was 1.103 billion units, showing a modest increase of 0.6% [8]. Overall Market Outlook - The recent strength in the rubber market can be attributed to a slight decline in production and the seasonal cessation of tapping in domestic production areas, which has alleviated supply-side pressures. Additionally, macroeconomic factors and rising crude oil prices have contributed to the market's upward momentum. There is potential for further price increases in the short term, although inventory pressures remain a concern [4][8].