长安期货刘琳：短期供需趋于宽松 玉米价格或承压偏弱

Summary - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the futures market has experienced a decline due to month-end position adjustments and long liquidation, with significant drops in both January and March contracts. However, the spot market remains relatively strong despite these declines [3][28]. Group 1: Market Performance - In mid-December, the January futures contract fell from a high of 2310 to around 2200, a decrease of approximately 110 points or 4.8%. The March contract also dropped from 2277 to about 2185, down approximately 92 points or 4% [3][28]. - The spot prices for corn at Jinzhou Port decreased from 2330 to 2295, a drop of 35 points or about 1.5%. Prices in Weifang, Shandong, fell from 2260 to 2250, and at Shekou Port from 2490 to 2420 [3][28]. Group 2: Supply and Sales Progress - As of December 19, the national grain sales reached 42%, a year-on-year increase of 4%, but the month-on-month growth has slowed significantly. The Northeast region's sales reached 41%, with notable increases in Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning, and Inner Mongolia [4][29]. - The sales progress in North China was 37%, slightly slower than last year, with Shandong and Hebei showing declines of 2% and 5% respectively. The sales in Henan were at 47%, up by 5% year-on-year [4][29]. Group 3: Inventory and Demand - As of December 19, the inventory at the four northern ports was 1.803 million tons, significantly lower than 4.39 million tons last year. The inflow of goods has remained high, indicating a positive market sentiment for grain sales [31]. - In Guangdong, the grain inventory was 1.303 million tons, with a slight increase in domestic corn inventory. However, the overall inventory remains low compared to last year [33]. Group 4: Feed Demand and Processing - The feed industry shows stable corn inventory levels, with an average of 29.98 days of inventory. The total feed production in November was 28.73 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.7% [35][10]. - The processing sector is facing losses, with processing rates at 60.46% as of December 25, down about 6 percentage points year-on-year. This has limited the demand for corn [12][39]. Group 5: Import Auctions and Price Dynamics - The ongoing import corn auctions have seen high demand, but the low auction price of 2000 yuan/ton has led to a perception of supply being more abundant than it is. The auctions aim to alleviate inventory pressure and increase market supply [41][17]. - Price differentials between regions, such as between Guangdong and Northeast ports, have narrowed due to limited demand at higher prices, affecting the pricing dynamics in the market [42]. Group 6: Market Outlook - The overall supply-demand situation is trending towards a more relaxed state, with expectations of downward price adjustments in the near term. The seasonal peak in grain sales before the Spring Festival may also influence market dynamics [47].