债市日报：12月25日

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing fluctuations with a general downward trend, particularly in government bond futures, while short-term bonds continue to show strength. The overall liquidity remains manageable under the central bank's guidance, despite rising funding demands as the year-end approaches [1][4]. Market Performance - Government bond futures closed lower across the board, with the 30-year contract down 0.24% to 112.51, the 10-year contract down 0.02% to 108.195, and the 5-year contract down 0.03% to 105.99. The 2-year contract also fell by 0.02% to 102.51 [2]. - The yield on the 30-year government bond rose by 0.9 basis points to 2.2275%, while the 10-year bond yield increased by 1 basis point to 1.8980%. Conversely, the 1-year bond yield decreased by 2 basis points to 1.32% [2]. Overseas Bond Market - U.S. Treasury yields fell across the board, with the 2-year yield down 2.45 basis points to 3.506% and the 10-year yield down 2.73 basis points to 4.136%. In the Eurozone, the 10-year French bond yield decreased by 5.1 basis points to 3.559% [3]. Funding Conditions - The central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 1,771 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 888 billion yuan for the day. The central bank is also set to conduct a 4,000 billion yuan operation for 1-year MLF [4]. - Shibor rates showed mixed performance, with the overnight rate falling to 1.262%, the lowest since August 2023, while the 7-day rate rose to 1.4% [4]. Institutional Insights - CITIC Securities noted an improvement in bond market sentiment, with the 10-year government bond yield stabilizing below 1.85%. There is renewed market interest in the "cross-year market" as long-term bonds begin to recover [5]. - Huatai Fixed Income highlighted that post-2020, there has been an increase in precautionary savings among households, leading to a significant rise in long-term deposits in the banking system. The upcoming maturity of these deposits poses a re-pricing challenge [5]. - China International Capital Corporation (CICC) indicated that while there may be short-term pressure on wealth management products, demand for credit bonds is expected to remain stable due to ongoing needs for credit debt amidst fluctuating interest rates [6].