RadexMarkets瑞德克斯:美油钻井回暖

Core Insights - The global energy supply landscape is undergoing a delicate rebalancing as 2025 approaches, with a slight increase in active oil and gas drilling rigs in the U.S. [1][3] - The total number of active drilling rigs rose by 3 to 545, although this is still 44 rigs short compared to the same period last year, indicating a seasonal adjustment in upstream exploration plans [1][3] - The increase in oil drilling rigs, which rose by 3 to 409, offsets a previous decline, while gas rigs remain high at 127, reflecting a growing demand for clean energy materials over crude oil [1][4] Market Performance - The Permian Basin saw an increase of 1 rig to 247, and Eagle Ford added 2 rigs to reach 41, indicating a recovery in these core production areas due to optimized shale oil extraction costs [2][4] - However, the Frac Spread Count has decreased to 154, down by 47 from the beginning of the year, highlighting bottlenecks in the completion phase of drilling [2][4] - WTI crude oil prices have stabilized at $58.51, while Brent crude is at $62.51, supported by supply-side tightening expectations [2][4] Future Outlook - The cautious recovery in drilling activity is expected to provide a solid bottom support for international oil prices, despite low base activity limiting the potential for supply surges [5] - As the number of completion crews decreases, the consumption of drilled but uncompleted wells (DUC) is expected to accelerate, leading to a tighter supply situation in the coming months [5] - Continuous monitoring of drilling efficiency improvements and geopolitical factors affecting oil risk premiums will be essential for timely market analysis [5]