中加基金配置周报|11月经济数据走弱，美联储打压降息预期

Economic Data Summary - In November, China's industrial added value increased by 4.8% year-on-year, while the service production index rose by 4.2%, and retail sales of consumer goods grew by 1.3% [1] - From January to November, fixed asset investment in China decreased by 2.6%, with manufacturing investment up by 1.9% and real estate development investment down by 15.9% [1] - The urban surveyed unemployment rate in China remained stable at 5.1% in November [1] US Employment and Inflation Data - In November, the US non-farm payrolls increased by 64,000, exceeding market expectations of 50,000, but the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.6%, the highest since September 2021 [1] - Average hourly earnings in November grew by 3.5% year-on-year, marking the slowest growth since May 2021 [1] - The US core CPI rose by 2.6% year-on-year in November, the slowest increase since early 2021, and the overall CPI increased by 2.7%, both below market expectations [1][2] Policy Measures in China - The Ministry of Commerce, the central bank, and financial regulators issued a notice to enhance collaboration between commerce and finance to boost consumption, proposing 11 specific measures [2] - Measures include encouraging the use of digital RMB smart contracts to improve consumption policies, promoting personal consumption loans, and exploring financial support for new business models [2] Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve officials indicated that monetary policy is prepared for 2026, with expectations that the unemployment rate will drop to 4.5% by the end of 2025 [3] - The Fed's policy has shifted from mild tightening to neutral, with no immediate urgency for further rate cuts despite the recent employment and inflation data [3] Market Performance Overview - In the futures market, ICE Brent crude oil fell by 1.14% to $60.12, while COMEX gold rose by 0.93% to $4368.7 [26] - The US dollar index increased by 31.13 basis points, while the Chinese yuan appreciated by 199 basis points against the dollar [26] - In the stock market, the ChiNext index fell by 2.26%, while the Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.28% [28] Bond Market Trends - In the bond market, short-term credit bonds declined while long-term bonds rose, with the 3Y AAA bond yield decreasing by 4 basis points [34] - US Treasury yields also experienced a downward trend, with 3Y, 5Y, and 20Y yields falling by 5 basis points [35]