预见2026｜从外需韧性到内生动能 基本面于多重目标中获取平衡

Core Insights - The Chinese economy is expected to achieve a growth target of around 5% for the year, supported by a significant contribution from domestic consumption and a resilient export sector [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Growth and Structure - In the first three quarters, consumption contributed 53.5% to GDP growth, a substantial increase of 9 percentage points compared to the previous year [2]. - Exports contributed 1.5 percentage points to GDP, accounting for approximately 30% of the growth, demonstrating strong resilience despite external uncertainties [2]. Group 2: Policy Measures and Economic Stability - The government has implemented timely macroeconomic policies to counteract pressures, particularly in real estate investment, showcasing a flexible approach to policy adjustments [3]. - A series of policies aimed at expanding domestic demand have shown tangible progress, with a 300 billion yuan subsidy for trade-ins leading to significant sales growth [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Challenges - The real estate sector remains a critical area of concern, as its stabilization is essential for financial security and consumer confidence [5]. - Looking ahead to 2026, the GDP growth target is likely to remain around 5%, with a focus on stabilizing employment and enhancing the environment for private and service sectors [7][8].