光伏产业如何通过技术与整合走出低价困局

Core Insights - The photovoltaic industry is facing a severe oversupply and price decline due to excessive capacity expansion without corresponding demand growth [2][4] - Major companies in the industry have reported significant losses, with a total loss of 26.068 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025 [2] - The industry must shift from a focus on scale expansion to technological innovation to break free from the current predicament [4][32] Industry Overview - From 2021 to 2024, the photovoltaic industry has been in a race to expand production capacity, driven by carbon neutrality goals [1] - However, demand has not kept pace, leading to a decline in production across key segments, including polysilicon and silicon wafers, with polysilicon production down 29.6% year-on-year [2] - Prices for polysilicon have plummeted from over 300,000 yuan per ton in 2022 to 34,700 yuan per ton in mid-2025, a nearly 90% drop [2] Technological Innovation - The industry is at a crossroads where reliance on scale expansion is no longer viable, and technological innovation is essential for survival [4][32] - The transition from P-type to N-type solar cells represents a critical technological evolution, with N-type TOPCon technology becoming increasingly competitive [5][6] - Setting rigid efficiency standards for solar products is crucial to encourage innovation and eliminate low-quality competition [7][10] Policy and Regulation - The government is encouraged to implement policies that support high-efficiency solar components and set efficiency benchmarks for market entry [7][21] - The "three red lines" financial metrics, similar to those used in the real estate sector, could be applied to the photovoltaic industry to manage financial risks and prevent over-leverage [22][23] - Establishing a clear regulatory framework is deemed necessary to guide the industry towards sustainable development [20][32] Market Dynamics - The current market is characterized by a lack of unified efficiency data, leading to confusion and inconsistency in performance claims among companies [9] - The industry must focus on high-quality, high-efficiency products to move away from price-based competition and towards value-based competition [8][32] - Collaboration across the supply chain is essential to balance profitability and ensure sustainable operations for all stakeholders [14][17] Future Outlook - The photovoltaic industry is expected to evolve towards a model centered on technological innovation and quality improvement, moving away from the previous focus on scale and low prices [32] - Companies that prioritize innovation, manage risks effectively, and engage in ecosystem development are likely to emerge as leaders in the future [32]