商品日报（12月25日）：下游涨价驱动多晶硅大涨 铂钯低开后走势分化

Core Viewpoint - The domestic commodity futures market in China experienced a mixed performance on December 25, with significant gains in polysilicon and platinum contracts, while palladium saw a sharp decline. The overall market sentiment remains influenced by supply-demand dynamics and macroeconomic factors [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - Polysilicon prices surged by 4.8% driven by downstream price increases, with major silicon wafer companies raising their prices by an average of 12% [3]. - The Shanghai silver, ethylene glycol, and international copper contracts all rose by over 2%, while rubber, styrene, and several other commodities saw gains exceeding 1% [1]. - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1576.53 points, up 0.68% from the previous trading day, while the Commodity Index rose to 2175.42 points, also reflecting a 0.68% increase [1]. Group 2: Polysilicon Insights - The recent price rebound in polysilicon is attributed to a healthy inventory level in the downstream silicon wafer segment, indicating a tight supply situation [3]. - Despite the positive sentiment, analysts caution that the sustainability of price increases will depend on whether downstream sectors can absorb the higher costs [3]. Group 3: Platinum and Palladium Dynamics - Platinum futures exhibited high volatility, with intraday fluctuations exceeding 15%, ultimately closing with a gain of 4.51% [4]. - The palladium market faced significant pressure, with prices dropping over 7% due to profit-taking and external market influences, reflecting a weaker fundamental outlook compared to platinum [6]. - Analysts noted that palladium's demand is heavily concentrated in automotive applications, which may lead to structural declines in demand as automotive catalyst needs decrease [6]. Group 4: Other Metals - The depreciation of the RMB against the USD provided additional support for international copper prices, which rose by over 2% despite Shanghai copper only gaining 1% [5]. - Nickel and tin contracts both fell by over 1%, influenced by seasonal demand weakness and high inventory levels, particularly in the stainless steel sector [7].