崔东树：11月我国锂电池出口市场表现分化 对欧盟暴增42% 对美国下跌

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in lithium carbonate prices may disrupt predictions for China's new energy vehicle market in 2026, with significant changes in lithium battery exports to different regions observed [1]. Group 1: Lithium Battery Export Trends - China's lithium battery exports are projected to remain strong in the first three quarters of 2025, averaging around $6 billion per month, but are expected to decline slightly in the fourth quarter [1]. - Exports to the EU surged by 42% in November 2025, while exports to the US plummeted by 44%, dropping from $18.7 billion to $10.4 billion, a decrease of 45% [1][17]. - The average export price of lithium batteries has decreased by 22% this year, reflecting a broader trend of declining prices [17]. Group 2: Solar Battery Export Trends - Solar battery exports have shown significant volatility, with a sharp decline in recent years, dropping from $928 billion in 2022 to $876 billion in 2023, and projected to fall further to $612 billion in 2024 [8]. - The industry is experiencing severe competition, leading to a challenging export environment for solar batteries [8]. Group 3: Market Demand Analysis - The EU remains the largest market for Chinese lithium batteries, accounting for approximately 40% of total exports, with a projected growth of 4 percentage points in 2025 compared to 2024 [11]. - Exports to the US are expected to continue declining, with a significant drop in market share compared to Southeast Asia [11]. Group 4: Price Changes in Lithium Batteries - In November 2025, lithium battery exports reached 4.47 billion units, valued at $6.81 billion, with a notable decrease in export prices from $18,000 per ton in 2024 to $15,000 per ton [13][17]. - Recent months have not seen an increase in lithium battery export prices, indicating a potential oversupply or reduced demand [14]. Group 5: Regional Demand Insights - The demand for lithium batteries in the US is experiencing a decline, with significant drops in both export volume and price, reflecting a disconnect between the surge in AI-driven energy needs and the current export dynamics [17]. - Conversely, the demand from the EU is increasing, with exports rising from $1.72 billion in November 2024 to $2.45 billion in 2025, compensating for the decline in US exports [18].