年末全球贸易答卷：有望首破35万亿美元，AI引领与风险并存

Group 1 - The report highlights that global trade is expected to exceed $35 trillion for the first time this year, with an increase of approximately $2.2 trillion compared to last year, representing a growth rate of about 7% [1] - The growth in global merchandise trade is projected to be around $1.5 trillion, while service trade is expected to grow by $750 billion, with respective growth rates of 6.3% and 8.8% compared to 2024 [1] - UNCTAD's report indicates that manufacturing, particularly in electronics, is leading the growth in global trade, while the energy and automotive sectors are experiencing relatively weak growth [2] Group 2 - The "Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Index" from UNCTAD has surpassed 500, reaching a 20-year high, indicating significant uncertainty in trade policies due to the U.S. government's fluctuating tariff policies [2] - The World Bank reports that global trade policy uncertainty has reached a historical peak since 2000, which has led many companies to expedite shipments to avoid tariff risks, thereby depleting future demand [2] - The forecast for global goods trade growth has declined, with a predicted increase of only 0.6% in the fourth quarter of this year, following a peak growth rate of 3.6% in the second quarter [2] Group 3 - UNCTAD predicts that by 2033, the global AI market size will surge from $189 billion in 2023 to $4.8 trillion, with a growth rate of 25 times over the next decade [3] - AI is expected to significantly enhance global trade and GDP growth, with trade potentially increasing by 34% to 37% and GDP growing by 12% to 13% by 2040, depending on policy and technological advancements [3] - The World Bank warns of the risks of imbalanced AI development, particularly affecting the economic transformation of developing countries [3]