粤开证券：人民币汇率持续升值的原因、影响及展望

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the Chinese yuan (RMB) against the US dollar is expected to strengthen significantly by 2025, driven by multiple factors, despite a slight depreciation against a basket of currencies [1][2][3] - As of December 25, the offshore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar has surpassed 7.0, with the onshore rate close to breaking the same level [1][3] - The RMB against the US dollar has appreciated by 4% as of December 24, while the US dollar index has decreased by 9.7%, indicating that the depreciation of the dollar is a primary reason for the RMB's appreciation [1][2][3] Group 2 - The appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar is driven by four main forces: the weakening of the US dollar index, the strengthening of the Chinese stock market, increased demand for currency settlement by export enterprises, and the People's Bank of China's (PBOC) guidance for a reasonable and orderly appreciation of the RMB [1][2][3] - The weakening US dollar index has been influenced by market expectations of a slowing US economy and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, leading to a decline from around 110 points at the beginning of the year to approximately 96 points [6][25] - The Chinese stock market has shown strength, with the A-share market experiencing a "technology revaluation bull market," which has increased the attractiveness of RMB-denominated assets [7][26] Group 3 - Concerns exist regarding the potential negative impact of the RMB's appreciation against the US dollar on Chinese exports; however, the actual effective exchange rate of the RMB against a basket of currencies is more critical in determining export performance [2][12][22] - The nominal effective exchange rate of the RMB is expected to decline in 2025, while low domestic prices and high overseas inflation will keep the actual effective exchange rate at historical lows, enhancing the price competitiveness of Chinese exports [12][14][36] - The RMB's appreciation has both positive and negative effects; it can improve international balance of payments and reduce trade friction, while also increasing import costs for enterprises [23][32] Group 4 - The RMB against the US dollar is projected to maintain a strong trend into 2026, with 6.8 being a potential key level, although some risk of correction may exist [3][38] - The market anticipates that the US economy will face challenges, leading to a continued weakening of the dollar index, while the Chinese economy is expected to recover, supporting the RMB's appreciation [38][39] - Export enterprises are advised not to rely solely on RMB exchange rate trends but to focus on their core business and utilize foreign exchange hedging strategies to mitigate risks [3][39]