2025年碳酸锂价格宽幅震荡 明年行业发展有望更稳健

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate market experienced significant price fluctuations in 2025, with a notable recovery in the second half of the year, driven by supply-demand dynamics and market sentiment changes [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Lithium carbonate prices started at 75,200 yuan/ton in early 2025, dropped to 59,900 yuan/ton by June 24, and rebounded to 104,900 yuan/ton by December 25 [1] - The supply side saw high-cost production being phased out in the first half of the year, but supply remained relatively loose until market disruptions from production cuts in the second half [1] - The global energy storage market experienced explosive growth, with China's lithium battery shipments reaching 165 GWh in Q3 2025, a 65% year-on-year increase, and an expected total of 580 GWh for the year, growing over 75% [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - The lithium carbonate market is expected to see both supply and demand growth in 2026, with new production capacities coming online and positive demand forecasts, particularly from energy storage [2] - The support for lithium prices is shifting from "disordered supply" to "cost-driven" factors, indicating a more rational approach to new supply [2] - The industry is transitioning into a new development phase, focusing on resource, technology, and product competition rather than just production volume [3] Group 3: Technological and Resource Advancements - Leading companies are establishing a stable and diverse supply chain for lithium resources through global mining projects, such as Ganfeng Lithium's initiatives in Argentina and Mali [3] - Innovations in lithium extraction technologies are being pursued, with companies achieving significant breakthroughs in direct lithium extraction from salt lakes [3] - Companies are also advancing in solid-state and energy storage battery technologies, with notable progress in the synthesis of core materials and production techniques [3] Group 4: Industry Strategy - Companies are encouraged to seize market opportunities while maintaining caution towards industry cycles to avoid blind expansion and to build resilient business structures and supply chains for sustainable growth [4]