人民币重返6时代 你的钱袋子和生意账本正在被重写

Core Viewpoint - The offshore RMB against the US dollar has officially broken the "7" threshold, closing at 6.9973, marking the first time since October 2024. This appreciation is seen as a potential return to the "6 era" for the RMB, impacting macroeconomic indicators and directly affecting consumer costs and corporate profits [1][9]. Exchange Rate Dynamics - The RMB's rise above the 7.0 mark is attributed to multiple factors, including the weakening of the US dollar, which has seen a decline since the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut announcement on December 11. The dollar index has fallen below the 100 mark, with expectations of further rate cuts by the Fed in 2026 [5][14]. - Seasonal financial operations are also a driving force, as companies typically engage in currency conversion at year-end to enhance financial statements or meet funding needs, contributing to the RMB's strength [5][14]. - Market sentiment plays a crucial role, as breaking through key psychological levels can reinforce appreciation expectations and attract more trading activity [5][14]. Impact on Capital Markets and Trade - The appreciation of the RMB is viewed positively in the financial markets, increasing the attractiveness of domestic capital markets to foreign investment due to enhanced currency exchange gains [6][15]. - However, for export-oriented companies that rely on foreign currency settlements, the RMB's appreciation compresses their exchange profits, while importers benefit from reduced costs [6][16]. - Despite the RMB's strength against the dollar, it has depreciated against a basket of other currencies, indicating that the recent appreciation may not significantly affect overall export competitiveness [6][16]. Policy and External Environment - Future outlooks for the RMB focus on policy guidance and external conditions. The UBS Wealth Management CIO office notes that regional currencies have varied performances, with the RMB being strictly managed and influenced by external factors such as political instability in Japan [7][17]. - Looking ahead to 2026, there is potential for further appreciation of the RMB, supported by the People's Bank of China's gradual guidance towards a stronger currency and possible trade agreements between China and the US before the midterm elections [8][17]. - The divergence in global monetary policies, with the Fed having cut rates by 1.75 percentage points since September, contrasts with the PBOC's modest rate cut of 0.4 percentage points, providing a supportive backdrop for the RMB [8][17].