银行业2026年度策略报告：息差底部渐近，红利成色更足

Core Viewpoint - The banking sector is expected to continue generating excess returns from the end of 2022 to mid-2025, driven by a dividend theme that promotes value reassessment, with a significant performance boost anticipated in 2024 across various banking sub-sectors [1][15]. Market Performance - The banking sector saw a 12.8% increase in 2025 (as of December 5), underperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.7 percentage points, ranking 20th among 30 primary industries [2][15]. - State-owned banks outperformed with an 18.8% increase, while joint-stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks rose by 10.7%, 10.3%, and 12.0% respectively [2][15]. Market Dynamics - The banking sector experienced a significant rally in the first half of 2025, particularly after May, driven by factors such as public fund assessment reforms and improved profit expectations due to monetary easing [2][15]. - A notable correction occurred from mid-July to late September, with a 13.7% decline attributed to a shift in market risk appetite towards growth sectors like technology [3][16]. Fourth Quarter Outlook - The fourth quarter saw a market style shift, leading to a resurgence in the banking sector, with key state-owned banks reaching historical highs [4][17]. - Factors driving this recovery included a return to high dividend yields, early mid-term dividend distributions, and increased institutional investment [4][17]. Valuation Metrics - The price-to-book (PB) ratio for the banking sector rose from a low of 0.5 in 2022 to 0.71 by December 5, 2025, although it remains at a low percentile compared to the past decade [1][15]. Hong Kong Market Performance - H-shares of banks significantly outperformed A-shares, with a 37.3% increase in 2025, narrowing the premium/discount rate to 27% [5][18]. - Notable individual stock performances included Standard Chartered and Hang Seng Bank, with increases of 85% and 70% respectively [5][18]. Fund Flows - Southbound funds accelerated net purchases of H-share banks, with a cumulative net buy of over HKD 195 billion in 2025, highlighting the attractiveness of H-shares due to higher dividend yields and tax advantages [6][19]. - Insurance funds have been a major source of capital for banks, driven by a need for reallocation in a low-interest-rate environment [21]. Investment Strategies - Strategic allocation by insurance funds and asset management companies (AMCs) has increased, with significant investments in state-owned and joint-stock banks [22]. - Passive ETFs have played a crucial role in driving up bank stock prices, although their inflow has slowed in 2025 [23]. Future Projections - The banking sector is expected to maintain stable credit growth and optimize its structure into 2026, with a focus on high-quality growth [14].