稳定币这一年：光环褪去后的监管博弈与生存暗战

Core Insights - The stablecoin sector has undergone a significant transformation from enthusiasm to rationality in 2025, achieving a record annual trading volume of $46 trillion and a total market capitalization of $300 billion, establishing itself as a core bridge between traditional finance and blockchain [3][4][14] - However, the sector faces challenges such as de-pegging incidents and compliance disputes, indicating a shift towards a new phase of regulatory restructuring [3][14] Transition from Marginal to Central - In 2025, stablecoins transitioned from being a peripheral aspect of crypto to a central infrastructure for global capital flow, with a trading volume increase of 106% year-over-year [4][14] - The total market capitalization of stablecoins surpassed $300 billion, with over 1% of USD existing in tokenized stablecoin form on public blockchains [4][14] - The infrastructure improvements, such as advancements in Layer 1 and Layer 2 chains, have significantly reduced transaction costs and settlement times, enhancing cross-border payment efficiency [5][15] Traditional Financial Institutions' Involvement - Major financial institutions are increasingly engaging with stablecoins, marking a maturation of the industry [6][16] - Notable developments include Visa's announcement allowing US banks to conduct settlements using USDC, and other institutions like Bank of New York Mellon and BlackRock expanding their services related to stablecoins [5][16] Market Dynamics and Holdings - Approximately 99% of stablecoins are USD-denominated, with USDT and USDC accounting for 87% of the market share [6][17] - Stablecoins have become significant holders of U.S. Treasury securities, surpassing sovereign nations like Saudi Arabia and South Korea [6][17] Global Regulatory Landscape - A global regulatory framework for stablecoins is rapidly taking shape, with the U.S. implementing the GENIUS Act and the EU establishing the MiCA regulation [7][18] - China has classified stablecoins as a form of virtual currency, deeming related activities illegal due to concerns over compliance and financial stability [8][19] - Hong Kong has introduced stringent regulations for stablecoins, focusing on licensing, reserve management, and redemption guarantees [8][19] Risks and Challenges - The stablecoin market continues to face deep-rooted risks, including high-risk asset exposure and liquidity issues, as highlighted by recent downgrades of USDT's rating [10][20] - The concentration of market share in a few entities, particularly Tether, poses systemic risks that could lead to significant liquidity freezes [10][20] - The industry is expected to evolve towards compliance, scenario-based applications, and regionalization, with predictions of stablecoin market capitalization reaching $500 billion to $600 billion by 2028 [11][21] Conclusion - The year 2025 marks a pivotal moment for stablecoins, characterized by a retreat from speculative fervor and a move towards rational reconstruction [11][21] - Financial innovation must align with regulatory frameworks to ensure stability and contribute positively to the digital transformation of the global financial system [11][21]