【财经分析】2026年白糖市场展望：增产周期下价格承压 国内糖市或延续“震荡偏弱、估值下移”格局

Core Viewpoint - The overall trend for sugar prices in 2025 is expected to decline, with the Zhengzhou sugar futures contract experiencing significant downward pressure, reaching a yearly low in December. The market is anticipated to continue a weak and volatile pattern due to increased production and lackluster demand, although a potential rebound may occur in late 2026 due to tighter inventory levels [1][2][3]. Group 1: Price Trends - In 2025, the domestic white sugar market is projected to see a downward shift in price levels compared to 2024, with the Zhengzhou sugar futures contract peaking at 6198 yuan/ton in April and dropping to 5072 yuan/ton by December, marking an 18% decline [2][3]. - The spot market is also showing a clear downward trend, with prices in Nanning, Guangxi falling to 5290 yuan/ton by December 22, a decrease of 12.49% year-on-year [2][3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The sugar market has entered a clear production increase cycle, with the supply-demand structure becoming more relaxed, leading to a filling of supply gaps and increased inventory, which puts pressure on sugar prices [2][3]. - The production of sugar is expected to rise to approximately 1170 million tons in the 2025/26 season, following a record high of 1116.2 million tons in the 2024/25 season, reflecting a 12.03% year-on-year increase [3][4]. - Despite increased domestic production, sugar consumption is projected to rise only slightly to 1570 million tons, resulting in a shift from a 5 million ton deficit in 2024/25 to an 82 million ton surplus in 2025/26 [3][4]. Group 3: Import and Global Market Influences - Domestic sugar imports remain high, with predictions of 500 million tons for the 2025/26 season, despite increased local production [4][6]. - Global sugar prices are under pressure due to increased production, with forecasts indicating a surplus of approximately 700 million tons in the 2025/26 season, the largest since the 2017/2018 season [6][7]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The sugar market is expected to remain under pressure due to a relaxed supply outlook, with prices fluctuating around the cost of sugar sources, projected between 5150 and 5750 yuan/ton [9][10]. - Climate factors and policy changes will be critical in influencing future sugar prices, with potential for a rebound in late 2026 due to low inventory levels [9][10].