中电联张琳：“十五五”期间电力系统调节成本预计达到万亿元级

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the importance of ensuring energy security and adjusting the supply structure during the 14th Five-Year Plan, which will drive rapid growth in electricity investment [2] - The penetration rate of domestic renewable energy increased from 3.3% to 22% between the 13th and 14th Five-Year Plans, with expectations to reach 30% by 2030 and a total installed capacity of 360 million kilowatts by 2035, adding over 20 million kilowatts annually [2] - The large-scale development of wind and solar power has led to challenges in grid absorption, with some provinces experiencing utilization rates below 90% [2] Group 2 - To address the challenges of renewable energy absorption, it is necessary to enhance the installation of grid-side or shared energy storage and improve storage utilization efficiency [3] - Hydrogen energy technology, while currently not cost-competitive, is expected to be a key development area during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with renewable energy hydrogen production seen as a solution to energy absorption issues [3] Group 3 - Coal power remains the dominant source of electricity supply in China, serving as a stabilizing force for energy security [4] - The proportion of coal power generation is predicted to decrease to 50% of total generation during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with a shift towards system regulation and security supply functions [5] Group 4 - The development of hydropower in key river basins is essential, aiming for an installed capacity of 410 million kilowatts by 2030, alongside the safe and orderly development of nuclear power [6] - Achieving reasonable absorption of renewable energy requires multiple targets, including increasing the share of flexible regulation power sources to 30% by 2030 and enhancing cross-regional power flexibility to over 40 million kilowatts [6] Group 5 - Strengthening grid construction is also a crucial measure to solve renewable energy absorption issues [7] - The construction of inter-provincial flexible mutual assistance projects is expected to be completed during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with the "West-to-East Power Transmission" project anticipated to exceed 460 million kilowatts by 2030 [8]