人民币汇率创15个月新高，双向波动或是常态

Core Viewpoint - The offshore RMB has broken the "7" level against the USD for the first time since October 2024, reaching a high of 6.9985, while the onshore RMB also strengthened, nearing the "7" mark at 7.0066, marking a new high since September 2024. The recent appreciation is attributed to a weaker USD and stable economic fundamentals in China, but experts caution against expecting a new cycle of unilateral appreciation [1][2][4]. Group 1: Factors Driving RMB Strength - The recent appreciation of the RMB is primarily driven by the weakening of the USD, which has seen a decline of about 3% since late November, providing external support for the RMB [2][4]. - China's economic fundamentals remain robust, with a trade surplus of $1.0758 trillion for the first 11 months of 2025, bolstering confidence in the RMB [2][4]. - Increased demand for currency settlement by enterprises at year-end has contributed to the seasonal strengthening of the RMB, although this "settlement tide" is not the main driver of the current appreciation [2][3]. Group 2: Outlook on RMB Exchange Rate - Experts generally believe that a sustained unilateral appreciation of the RMB is unlikely, with expectations for continued two-way fluctuations around the "7" level [4][8]. - The future trajectory of the USD is uncertain, with predictions of a potential rebound after a period of decline, which could diminish the RMB's appreciation momentum [4][5]. - The complex external economic environment, including trade relations and potential retaliatory measures from other countries due to China's trade surplus, adds uncertainty to the RMB's future [5][6]. Group 3: Implications for Enterprises - The appreciation of the RMB presents both opportunities and challenges for enterprises, benefiting capital markets and importers while posing risks for exporters [9][10]. - Exporters are experiencing exchange rate losses due to the rapid appreciation, which affects their international price competitiveness and order flow [10][11]. - Companies are advised to adopt systematic risk management strategies to mitigate the impacts of exchange rate fluctuations, focusing on maintaining a neutral stance towards currency risk [11].