Marko Papic万字访谈：委内瑞拉救不了油价 特朗普或在2026年“压榨”美联储 股市迎来“YOLO时刻”

Group 1 - Marko Papic analyzes Trump's recent "no-fly zone" threat against Venezuela, suggesting it is a negotiation tactic rather than a prelude to war, part of Trump's "maximum pressure" strategy [1][8] - Venezuela's vast oil reserves are unlikely to provide a quick solution to U.S. inflation, as production capacity has been severely damaged, making the idea of easily alleviating oil prices a short-term fantasy [1][12] - Papic predicts that by 2026, the energy market will face significant pressures, necessitating a major shift in global policies [1][12] Group 2 - Papic defends Kevin Hassett as a serious economic strategist rather than a mere "Trump puppet," indicating that his appointment would continue a dovish monetary policy trend in the U.S. [2][35] - The U.S. may need to prepare for oil prices around $80 to address inflation, requiring supply-side reforms beyond just energy [4][18] - Papic emphasizes the importance of housing affordability and lowering borrowing rates as key issues for the upcoming elections, suggesting a renewed focus on stimulating the housing market [26][29] Group 3 - The geopolitical landscape, particularly the relationship with Saudi Arabia, is critical, as they may not continue to support U.S. oil needs indefinitely, impacting future oil prices [12][18] - Papic warns that if the U.S. were to replace Maduro, the immediate increase in oil supply is unrealistic due to Venezuela's deteriorated production capabilities [13][14] - The potential for a peace agreement in Ukraine could lead to a return of Russian oil to the market, which may affect global oil prices [19][20] Group 4 - Papic suggests that the U.S. political landscape will dominate market dynamics in 2026, with Trump likely to pursue monetary easing to secure electoral success [23][25] - The current economic environment indicates that consumer participation is crucial for GDP growth, and without it, the economy may face challenges [25][29] - Papic believes that weakening the independence of the Federal Reserve could create a favorable environment for the stock market, despite potential long-term consequences [30][32]