中辰集团许绍新：2026年A股将呈现“N字形”走势

Group 1: A-Share Market Outlook - The A-share market is expected to show an N-shaped trend in 2026, with a peak in Q1, followed by a likely consolidation in Q2 and Q3, and new highs in the second half of the year [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index (SHCI) is facing a significant resistance at the 4000-point level, which has been a downward trend line for 17 years, making it challenging to break through [1] - The SHCI has successfully broken the 3700-point resistance, indicating a consolidation phase between 3800 and 4000 points, but the duration of this consolidation may delay the breakout in Q1 2026 [1] Group 2: Semiconductor Industry Analysis - The semiconductor industry is anticipated to experience a prolonged upward cycle lasting approximately two and a half years, with a peak expected in the first half of 2026 [2] - After the final surge in the semiconductor sector, it is advised to shift focus to industries related to PPI and CPI in the second half of 2026 [2] - The performance of the brokerage sector is crucial for the SHCI's ability to break through in the first half of the year, making it a key area to monitor [2] Group 3: Investment Strategies - The current timing is deemed appropriate for investing in the humanoid robot sector, indicating a shift in focus from previous strategies centered on AI [3] - The main board is expected to rely on non-bank financials, with excess returns driven by thematic investments and cyclical reversals [3] - Investment in energy storage and lithium mining is projected to continue its cyclical reversal trend until 2027, suggesting a strategy of buying on dips during off-seasons [2]