全国现房销售占比突破35% 业内：“十五五”期间有望逐渐推进

Core Insights - A significant shift in the home buying model is underway across multiple cities in China, with policies mandating the sale of completed residential properties, known as "现房销售" (current housing sales) [1][2][4] - The proportion of completed residential sales has increased from 10% in 2019 to 33% by early 2025, with over 30 provinces and cities initiating pilot programs or supportive policies for current housing sales [1][4] - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has identified promoting current housing sales as a key task for the next phase of real estate development, aligning with the "14th Five-Year Plan" for high-quality growth in the sector [1][4] Policy Developments - Since 2025, cities like Pingjiang in Hunan, Zhangye in Gansu, and Xinyang in Henan have implemented policies requiring new land sales for residential projects to adopt current housing sales [1][2] - The city of Xinyang became the first in the country to fully implement current housing sales for new land sales in May 2025 [2] - Hainan was the first province to introduce current housing sales at the provincial level starting in 2020 [3] Market Trends - As of the end of 2024, the proportion of completed residential sales is projected to be approximately 30.84% of total residential sales, increasing to 35.4% in the first nine months of 2025 [1][4] - In Shenzhen, the proportion of current housing sales reached 30.9% in the first half of 2025, up from 14.6% in the first half of 2023, indicating a growing acceptance of this sales model [6][7] Industry Impact - The promotion of current housing sales is expected to reshape the real estate market, impacting both buyers and developers, and leading to a consolidation of the industry [7][8] - Companies will face increased financial pressure due to longer cash flow cycles, as the return period shifts from approximately six months under pre-sale models to two to three years under current sales [7][8] - The implementation of current housing sales may require innovative financial products and adjustments in land sale conditions to alleviate developers' financial burdens [7][8]