AI浪潮转向硬科技 专家：2026年大概率成为AI手机元年

Core Insights - In 2025, DeepSeek emerged, significantly lowering the application cost and threshold of AI technology, leading to a boom in vertical applications and a shift in industry competition from single model comparisons to full-stack ecosystem battles [1] - The AI landscape is transitioning from a dominance of OpenAI to a multi-polar competition, with applications expanding from software to intelligent hardware [1][2] - The "Hundred Mirrors War" in AI hardware is intensifying, with major tech companies investing heavily in AI glasses and smartphones, marking a significant shift in human-computer interaction [6] Group 1: AI Application Market Dynamics - The introduction of DeepSeek in February 2025 has drastically reduced AI inference costs, spurring growth in vertical applications such as AI in health, education, and office settings, leading to a reshuffling of the AI application market [2] - User data shows a concentration effect, with DeepSeek achieving an average monthly download of 34.72 million and ByteDance's Doubao at 31.44 million, dominating the general AI assistant market [2] - Vertical scenarios are becoming crucial for AI applications, evolving from language Q&A and content generation to multi-task intelligent agents across various industries [2][3] Group 2: Hardware Developments and Market Trends - McKinsey predicts a surge in vertical AI intelligent agents by 2025, with over 70% of AI value potential expected to come from these applications [3] - The global smart glasses market saw a shipment of 4.065 million units in the first half of 2025, a 64.2% year-on-year increase, with China accounting for 26.6% of the market share [6] - The global smart glasses market is projected to reach $42 billion by 2030 and $117 billion by 2040, despite facing challenges in technology maturity and privacy compliance [6] Group 3: Future Growth Areas - Key growth points in the AI field for 2026 include large models with continuous learning capabilities, real-time interactive 3D models, and seamless intelligent agents that integrate tools, data, and workflows [4] - The AI smartphone market is expected to see a shipment of 147 million units in China in 2026, a 31.6% year-on-year growth, capturing 53% of the overall market [8] - The "Doubao phone" model is gaining attention, with a focus on a multi-to-multi intelligent connection ecosystem, avoiding a zero-sum game in the internet ecosystem [9]