星石投资副总经理方磊：2026年驱动A股的核心变量是盈利要素

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to enter a bull market in 2025, supported by policies, valuations, earnings, and capital, with a notable differentiation in market segments anticipated in 2026 as the "14th Five-Year Plan" begins [1] Group 1: Market Drivers - The core variable driving the stock market in 2026 is expected to be earnings, transitioning from valuation-driven to earnings-driven performance, with all sectors presenting investment opportunities [2] - The market style in 2026 is anticipated to be more balanced compared to 2025, as various sectors, including traditional industries, are expected to show earnings recovery and valuation repair [2] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - In 2026, institutional funds are likely to shift towards new consensus areas beyond just technology growth sectors, expanding into traditional industries as the overall market enters an earnings release phase [2] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes improving domestic consumption and technological self-reliance, indicating significant long-term investment opportunities in these areas [3] Group 3: Investment Strategies for Ordinary Investors - Ordinary investors should focus on balancing long-term and short-term investment strategies, adjusting their portfolio based on individual risk preferences and return expectations [4] - For long-term investments, attention should be paid to industry trends and fundamental changes, while short-term opportunities require monitoring of price fluctuations and relative valuations [4] Group 4: Changes in Valuation Logic - The emphasis on "technological self-reliance" in the "14th Five-Year Plan" is expected to reshape the valuation system of A-shares, with a potential reduction in mid-term volatility of technology stock valuations [6] - The focus on core technology autonomy and industry policy support may increase the weight of non-financial indicators in valuation assessments [6] - Valuation logic in the technology sector may evolve from a focus on individual segments to a more integrated approach across entire industry chains, creating a linked valuation framework [6] Group 5: Recommendations for 2026 - A balanced and long-term investment approach is recommended for 2026, with a focus on fundamental factors such as corporate earnings, while avoiding speculative trading [7] - The current market conditions suggest that equity assets still hold mid-to-high investment value, despite some high valuations potentially leading to short-term volatility [7]