从“边缘势力”到“关键变量” 极右翼搅动多国政局

Core Viewpoint - The rise of far-right parties in Europe is becoming a significant political variable, influencing government formation and policy direction across multiple countries [1][2]. Group 1: Political Landscape - In the recent elections in Spain's Extremadura region, the ruling party faced setbacks while the far-right Vox party increased its seats by over 100%, becoming a key player in local government formation [1]. - The far-right parties in Europe are characterized by their ability to be "not necessarily the largest, but indispensable," allowing them to influence mainstream parties on various issues such as budgets, immigration, and security [2]. - The German far-right party, Alternative for Germany (AfD), achieved a record vote share in the February federal elections, becoming the second-largest party and forcing mainstream parties to collaborate on immigration issues, indicating a weakening of the political "firewall" against far-right influence [4]. Group 2: Public Sentiment and Mobilization - The rise of far-right parties is attributed to public anxiety over economic conditions, immigration, and security, leading to a growing distrust in traditional political parties [5][6]. - In Europe, three main sentiments are exploited by far-right parties: economic and livelihood anxiety, immigration and security concerns, and Euroscepticism, particularly in countries like Poland and Hungary [5][6]. - Far-right parties position themselves as challengers to the establishment and defenders of national rights, using provocative slogans to garner support [6]. Group 3: Impact on Traditional Politics - The ascendance of far-right parties is shifting the political center to the right, resulting in fragmented political landscapes where traditional parties must form weaker coalitions or compromise on key issues to maintain power [7]. - In the EU, this shift is leading to stricter immigration and border policies, delays in green transitions, and increased costs for consensus on foreign aid, particularly regarding Ukraine [9]. - The upcoming elections in Europe, including Hungary and Germany, are expected to further test the dynamics between mainstream parties and far-right opponents, with potential implications for policy and governance [9].