招商证券首席策略分析师张夏：市场驱动力切换 布局顺周期与科技自立双主线

Core Viewpoint - The year 2026 will mark a critical turning point for the A-share market, transitioning from liquidity-driven to profit-driven growth, driven by a rebound in PPI and a dual focus on domestic demand recovery and technological self-reliance [1] Group 1: Macroeconomic Environment - The growth model reliant on real estate and infrastructure credit expansion has weakened, with government spending becoming the core marginal force for total demand fluctuations since 2022 [2] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is expected to maintain an expansionary fiscal policy, with infrastructure and major projects driving investment and countering export decline [2] - The year 2026 coincides with the U.S. midterm elections, historically leading to expansionary fiscal and monetary policies in the U.S., which will resonate with China's policies, potentially boosting global demand for industrial metals [2] Group 2: Market Transition - The A-share market is transitioning from a liquidity-driven phase to a profit-driven phase, with PPI recovery being a key variable indicating substantial improvement in corporate profits [4] - Historical patterns show that industries like oil, non-ferrous metals, coal, and basic chemicals are highly correlated with PPI and commodity prices [4] - The market is expected to enter a profit-driven phase, with small-cap growth stocks likely to outperform as PPI improves [4] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Investment strategies should focus on the dual drivers of domestic demand recovery and technological self-reliance, particularly in the domestic computing power industry [5] - The recovery of the consumer services sector is anticipated to be driven by multiple factors, including policy goals to enhance consumer spending and structural trends like aging populations and the rise of younger consumers [6] - The domestic AI chip market is expected to gain historical market share against foreign competitors, with key areas including integrated circuits and foundational software [6] Group 4: Industry Focus - Recommended sectors for investment include cyclical industries, technology innovation, and consumer recovery, with a focus on non-ferrous metals, machinery, power equipment, electronics, media, and social services [6]