深陷贬值风暴 日韩打响“货币保卫战”

Core Viewpoint - The global foreign exchange market is experiencing significant volatility, with the Chinese yuan showing a strong rebound while the Japanese yen and South Korean won are facing severe depreciation pressures [1] Group 1: Currency Trends - The Japanese yen has depreciated significantly, with a recent drop to nearly 158 yen per dollar despite a 25 basis point interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan [2] - The South Korean won has also weakened, reaching a low of 1485 won per dollar, approaching the critical psychological level of 1500 [2] - The depreciation of both currencies is asymmetric, with the yen falling over 8% and the won nearly 7% against the dollar, while the dollar index has only risen by about 1.2% [2] Group 2: Structural Challenges - The weakness of the yen is attributed to multiple factors, including market expectations of the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, lack of clear guidance on future hikes, and expansionary fiscal policies leading to concerns over fiscal sustainability [3] - The decline of the won is linked to foreign capital outflows and strong overseas investment demand, with domestic investors selling a net 23 trillion won in local stocks while buying 103 billion USD (approximately 15.28 trillion won) in overseas stocks [3][4] Group 3: Government Interventions - In response to the currency depreciation, South Korean authorities have issued verbal warnings and announced measures to stabilize the foreign exchange market and promote domestic capital market recovery [5] - The South Korean government has been proactive, holding meetings and implementing strategies to address the currency's weakness, including a more flexible approach to foreign exchange hedging by the National Pension Service [6] - Japanese authorities are also taking action, with the Finance Minister warning that the yen's movements are driven by speculation rather than fundamentals, indicating potential for intervention if the yen experiences extreme volatility [6]