Four factors that will drive the Bitcoin price into 2026. ‘Nothing stops this train’

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin is experiencing a significant decline, down 30% from its October all-time high, despite favorable macroeconomic conditions that have benefited other assets like stocks and gold [1]. Group 1: Price Performance - Bitcoin is down approximately 5% year-to-date against the USD and around 40% compared to gold, despite reaching record highs above $126,000 in early October [2]. - The current price drop is attributed to steady, price-insensitive selling from long-term holders, particularly around the $100,000 psychological level [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The belief in Bitcoin's four-year cycle is negatively impacting its price, as traders are attempting to front-run each other based on this cycle [4]. - Historically, Bitcoin prices have surged after halving events, only to peak and subsequently decline as early investors take profits, leading to a self-reinforcing selling behavior among traders [5]. Group 3: Institutional Perspectives - Analysts from Grayscale, Bitwise, and Binance's co-founder suggest that factors driving previous halving cycles are weaker now due to increased institutional adoption and regulatory clarity [6].