Stocks Little Changed Heading Into Year-End

Economic Outlook - The S&P 500 Index is unchanged, while the Dow Jones Industrials Index is up by 0.09% and the Nasdaq 100 Index is down by 0.06% [1] - US Q3 real GDP rose by 4.3% (quarter-over-quarter annualized), significantly exceeding market expectations of 3.3% [2] - The Conference Board's December US consumer confidence index dropped by 3.8 points to 89.1, below market expectations of 91.0 [2] Labor Market - US weekly initial unemployment claims fell by 10,000 to 214,000, better than expectations of 224,000, indicating a stronger labor market [3] - Continuing claims rose by 38,000 to 1.923 million, which was higher than expectations of 1.900 million, suggesting some weakness in the labor market [3] Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) issued a cautious statement, focusing on long-term stability and indicating no immediate interest rate cuts despite economic challenges [4] Market Trends - Seasonal factors are bullish for stocks, with the S&P 500 rising 75% of the time in the last two weeks of December, averaging a 1.3% increase [5] - The markets are pricing in a 13% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the FOMC's next meeting on January 27-28 [5] Interest Rates - March 10-year T-notes are up 2.5 ticks, with the 10-year T-note yield down by 0.8 basis points at 4.155% [6] - T-note prices are slightly higher despite a supply overhang, as the Treasury is selling $44 billion of 7-year T-notes [6]