2025，欧洲负重前行的一年

Group 1: Political Landscape - The rise of far-right parties in Europe is reshaping the political landscape, with significant gains in countries like Germany, Portugal, and Romania, indicating a shift from traditional political structures to a more fragmented governance model [2][3][4] - In Germany, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party has surged to become the second-largest party, reflecting a broader trend of increasing far-right influence across Europe [2][3] - Political fragmentation is leading to governance challenges, as seen in France where frequent changes in leadership have resulted in a perception of ungovernability [3][4] Group 2: Economic Challenges - The European economy is facing a slowdown, with GDP growth projected at 1.4% for 2025, but major economies like Germany, France, and Italy are experiencing significant challenges [5][6] - Germany's GDP growth is forecasted at only 0.3%, with further downward revisions indicating a tough economic outlook [5] - High public debt levels are straining welfare systems, with France's debt-to-GDP ratio at 117% and several other EU countries exceeding their annual economic output in debt [6] Group 3: Strategic Autonomy and US Dependence - Europe is grappling with the challenge of achieving strategic autonomy while remaining dependent on the US for military support, highlighted by recent tensions in transatlantic relations [7][9] - The EU is pushing for increased military capabilities and defense spending, aiming to reduce reliance on the US, but faces significant hurdles in actualizing these ambitions [8][9] - The ongoing geopolitical landscape necessitates a reevaluation of Europe's foreign policy, emphasizing the need for a balanced approach between autonomy and cooperation with the US [9][10]