中亚经济增长态势强劲

Core Insights - The Central Asian region is experiencing robust economic growth, with Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan showing resilience and a shift in development models, supported by deepening cooperation with China [1][5]. Economic Performance - Kazakhstan's economy grew by 6.4% in the first 11 months, with the real economy expanding by 8.3%. Key sectors include transportation (+20.3%) and construction (+14.7%). Fixed asset investment increased by 13.3% [2]. - Uzbekistan's GDP grew by 7.6% in the first nine months, with an expected annual growth of 7.5%. The construction sector grew by 14.2%, and services by 14%. Fitch upgraded Uzbekistan's credit rating to "BB" [2]. - Kyrgyzstan's economy surged by 11.7% in the first half and maintained a 10.2% growth rate in the first 11 months, driven by services (49.3% of GDP, +8.9%) and construction (+29%) [3]. - Tajikistan's GDP grew by 8.2% from January to September, with industrial output increasing by 24% and agriculture by 8.1% [3]. - Turkmenistan's economy grew by 6.3% in the first 11 months, with construction, transportation, and trade as key growth drivers [3]. Structural Transformation - Central Asian countries are shifting from external dependency to a dual-driven growth model, with domestic investment and consumption playing a larger role [4]. - The economic structure is diversifying, with rapid growth in the real economy and an expanding share of modern services such as trade, logistics, and finance [4]. - Policymakers are balancing growth and risk management, with inflation pressures prompting measures like interest rate hikes in Kazakhstan [4]. - Long-term strategies are focusing on digital transformation and sustainable development, with initiatives in technology and green energy [4]. China-Central Asia Cooperation - The economic vitality of Central Asia is closely linked to cooperation with China, marked by the second China-Central Asia Summit in 2025 [5]. - Trade between China and Kazakhstan reached $14.9 billion in the first half of the year, while trade with Kyrgyzstan increased from $17.4 billion to $23.6 billion in the first ten months [6]. - Connectivity projects are transforming Central Asia from a landlocked region to a land-linked one, with significant increases in cargo volumes and the launch of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway [6]. - Emerging cooperation in digital economy, green energy, and high-tech sectors is fostering future economic growth in Central Asia [6]. Institutional Framework - The signing of a permanent friendly cooperation treaty among six countries establishes six priority cooperation areas, enhancing institutional cooperation [7]. - The focus is on building local capacities through training, agricultural technology promotion, and poverty reduction mechanisms [7]. - The collective economic growth of Central Asia demonstrates the region's inherent vitality and resilience, supported by close ties with China [7].