人民币对美元中间价创14个月新高—— 经济稳中向好支持汇率走强

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar is attributed to a combination of external pressures easing, internal economic resilience, precise policy adjustments, and shifting market expectations [1][2]. Group 1: External Factors - The primary driver for the recent strengthening of the RMB is the changing environment of the US dollar, particularly due to the Federal Reserve's ongoing interest rate cuts, which have suppressed the long-term outlook for the dollar [1][2]. - The US dollar index has decreased by approximately 2.0% since late November, reflecting the impact of enhanced expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts [2]. Group 2: Internal Economic Resilience - China's economy has demonstrated strong resilience, with significant improvements in economic data and rising policy expectations, which provide solid fundamental support for the RMB [1][2]. - China's trade surplus exceeded $1 trillion for the first 11 months of the year, and the performance of the Chinese capital market has attracted continuous foreign investment, increasing demand for the RMB [1]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - As the year-end approaches, there is an increase in corporate demand for currency settlement, which is contributing to the seasonal strengthening of the RMB [2]. - The appreciation of the RMB is expected to enhance the attractiveness of the domestic capital market to foreign investors, directly increasing foreign exchange earnings [2]. Group 4: Expert Opinions and Recommendations - Experts suggest that export enterprises should not rely solely on a one-sided view of the RMB exchange rate and should utilize foreign exchange derivatives to manage currency risk effectively [3]. - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes maintaining the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level, indicating a policy orientation to prevent excessive appreciation or depreciation of the currency [3].