【沥青日报】沥青BU震荡徘徊3000附近，美国表态对委油实施隔离

Market Performance - The BU 2602 contract experienced intraday fluctuations, closing at 2995 with a gain of 0.17%, reaching a high of 3010 and a low of 2983, with a cumulative increase of 3.6% over the past week [2][29] - The next month contract 2603 saw a slight decline of 0.03%, maintaining a contango structure with lower near-term prices compared to longer-term prices [2][29] Spot Market - The price of heavy asphalt in Shandong remained stable at 2920 yuan/ton, with no change week-on-week and a cumulative increase of 0% over the past week [2][29] - In East China, the heavy asphalt price was 3090 yuan/ton, also unchanged, while the basis in Shandong was -75 yuan/ton, down 101 yuan/ton over the past week [2][29] Crack Spread Changes - The BU-Brent spread recorded -189 yuan/ton, with a cumulative increase of 1 yuan/ton over the past week, while the BU main contract rose by 0.17% and Brent remained unchanged [2][29] - Oil prices are influenced by geopolitical disturbances in Venezuela, leading to short-term price stabilization but with ongoing uncertainty [2][29] Fundamental Changes - Recent developments regarding Venezuelan oil exports remain a key risk factor, with U.S. military orders for a two-month "quarantine" on Venezuelan oil, following a comprehensive blockade initiated by Trump [3][30] - Venezuela's oil exports are hindered by sanctions, forcing oil to be stored on tankers, with China being the primary destination for approximately 80% of Venezuelan oil exports, indicating a high dependency of Chinese refineries on Venezuelan crude [3][30] Supply and Inventory - The dilution asphalt discount widened, with Malaysia's dilution asphalt discount recorded at -14.46 USD/barrel as of December 24, compared to -13.46 USD/barrel a week earlier [4][31] - Total social and domestic inventory data recorded 642,000 tons, reflecting a 0.9% increase week-on-week, indicating a slow inventory reduction [4][31] Short-term Outlook - Asphalt prices have slightly increased since early December, fluctuating around 3000, with significant volatility observed [5][32] - Downstream road demand is in a seasonal lull, maintaining a weak price outlook, constrained by reduced demand and inventory pressures, with attention on winter storage trends [5][32] Strategy - The recommended strategy is to adopt a wide-ranging single-sided trading approach [6][33]