人民币对美元中间价创14个月新高 经济稳中向好支持汇率走强

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar is attributed to a combination of external pressures easing, internal economic resilience, precise policy adjustments, and shifting market expectations [1][2]. Group 1: Factors Influencing RMB Appreciation - The direct driving force behind the recent RMB appreciation is the changing environment of the US dollar, particularly due to the Federal Reserve's ongoing interest rate cuts, which are expected to suppress the long-term outlook for the dollar and provide external appreciation space for the RMB [1]. - China's economic resilience and attractiveness serve as solid fundamental support for the RMB, especially with marginal improvements in economic data and rising policy expectations, which bolster the RMB exchange rate [1]. - The trade surplus of China exceeded $1 trillion for the first time in the first eleven months of the year, and the strong performance of the Chinese capital market has attracted continuous foreign investment, increasing the buying power of the RMB [1]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Predictions - The recent strengthening of the RMB is driven by two main factors: enhanced expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts leading to a decline in the US dollar index, which has dropped approximately 2.0% since late November, and the strong resilience of the Chinese economy amid complex external conditions [2]. - As the year-end approaches, there is an increase in corporate demand for currency settlement, which is contributing to the seasonal strengthening of the RMB. The sustained appreciation of the RMB may accelerate the release of previously accumulated settlement demand [2]. - Experts suggest that the RMB's continued appreciation will enhance the attractiveness of the domestic capital market to foreign investors, directly increasing foreign exchange earnings [2]. Group 3: Recommendations for Enterprises - Export enterprises may experience reduced exchange profits due to RMB appreciation, while import enterprises will see a decrease in costs. It is advised that foreign trade companies do not bet on a unilateral RMB exchange rate trend but instead focus on their core business and utilize foreign exchange derivatives to manage exchange rate risk [3]. - Despite the recent strengthening of the RMB, it is expected that the exchange rate will continue to fluctuate around the 7.0 level, with a low probability of rapid unilateral appreciation. Companies, especially those with foreign business, should actively build systematic exchange rate risk management capabilities [3]. - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes maintaining the RMB exchange rate's basic stability at a reasonable and balanced level, reflecting a policy orientation to prevent both excessive depreciation and appreciation of the exchange rate [3].