螺纹钢上行驱动力不足

Core Viewpoint - The rebar steel futures prices have shown a low-level fluctuation since December, with the main contract oscillating between 3030 and 3180 yuan/ton, recently returning to the upper end of this range. However, the spot prices have followed suit but are limited by weak downstream demand entering the off-season [1] Group 1: Short-term Positive Factors - The recent rebound in rebar futures prices is supported by three main positive factors: first, renewed policy expectations have strengthened the "anti-involution" trading logic, leading to a strong rise in related varieties and boosting overall market sentiment [1] - Second, raw material prices have stabilized, particularly iron ore prices, which have shown strong performance, supporting steel price trends from the cost side [1] - Third, under low supply conditions, inventory pressure has significantly eased [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Despite the low supply situation providing some support for steel prices, the fundamental conditions for rebar steel have not shown substantial improvement, continuing a weak supply-demand balance. Near the end of the year, production willingness among construction steel mills has weakened, with the latest weekly output at 1.8168 million tons, remaining at a low level compared to previous years, down 20.27% year-on-year [1] - The apparent demand for rebar steel is currently at 2.0864 million tons, which, although increased by 55,500 tons week-on-week, is still at one of the lowest levels in recent years, down 7.42% year-on-year. Other demand indicators, such as daily transactions and cement outflow, are also at low levels, indicating weak construction-related demand [2] Group 3: Cost Support and Supply Pressure - Although iron ore prices remain high, providing some cost support for steel, the supply-demand dynamics for iron ore are weak, making prices susceptible to downward pressure. If iron ore prices decline, the cost support for steel prices will weaken [3] - On the supply side, domestic port arrivals and miner shipments are at high levels for the year. Cumulatively, iron ore shipments have increased by over 45 million tons year-on-year, while domestic port arrivals have only increased by 1.912 million tons, indicating a significant discrepancy [3] - Overall, while short-term positive factors have pushed rebar steel prices back to the upper end of the fluctuation range, the weak supply-demand balance remains unchanged, and under off-season conditions, the upward driving force for steel prices is insufficient [3]