豆粕延续供强需弱格局

Core Viewpoint - The soybean market in 2025 will be influenced by domestic soybean import schedules, weather conditions in the U.S. soybean-producing regions, and changes in export expectations. Current concerns over U.S. soybean exports and strong expectations for South American yields indicate a weakening upward momentum, leading to a forecast of continued weak price performance for domestic soybean meal [1]. Group 1: International Soybean Supply - The international soybean market continues to exhibit a loose supply pattern, with U.S. soybean harvest nearly complete by the end of December, resulting in ongoing market pressure from increased supply and insufficient export demand [1]. - Brazil's soybean planting progress exceeds 90%, and despite some drought in certain areas, overall growth is strong, maintaining pressure for high yields. Argentina's soybean planting is accelerating, with overall supply remaining ample despite a slight reduction in planting area [1]. - Market attention is shifting towards South American weather, with a 55% probability of a weak La Niña phenomenon occurring in the next three months, which could pose drought risks in southern Brazil and coincide with critical growth periods in Argentina, potentially impacting yield expectations and market sentiment [1]. Group 2: Domestic Soybean Import and Processing - China's soybean import volume is expected to exceed 110 million tons in 2025, marking a historical high, with a stable import structure led by Brazil as the primary supplier [2]. - Domestic soybean crushing is projected to reach record levels in 2025, influenced by fluctuations in raw material supply, with expectations for continued high operation levels into 2026, although the crushing pace will exhibit a front-loaded and back-loaded pattern due to high base numbers and inventory adjustments [2]. - In terms of inventory, China's soybean stock is anticipated to show a tight-to-loose pattern, with 2026 global soybean production expected to remain high, directly affecting oil mill operating rates and soybean meal inventory changes [2]. Group 3: Demand and Market Outlook - The demand side shows a moderate recovery in the livestock sector, supporting slight growth in feed production, but the ongoing implementation of the "Three-Year Action Plan for Reducing Soybean Meal in Feed" is expected to decrease the proportion of soybean meal in feed from the current 13.9% to a range of 13.0% to 13.5%, limiting its price-driving potential [2]. - Overall, the soybean meal market in 2026 is expected to continue a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, with limited upward price potential, emphasizing the importance of monitoring domestic soybean import schedules and inventory changes [3].