人民币对美元中间价创14个月新高——经济稳中向好支持汇率走强

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar is attributed to a combination of external pressures easing, internal economic resilience, precise policy adjustments, and shifting market expectations, with the RMB reaching its highest midpoint since September 30, 2024, at 7.0392 against the dollar, marking the largest increase since August 27, 2025 [1][2]. Group 1: Factors Influencing RMB Appreciation - The primary driver for the recent strength of the RMB is the changing environment of the US dollar, particularly due to expectations of continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which have suppressed the long-term outlook for the dollar [1][2]. - China's economic resilience and attractiveness have provided solid fundamental support for the RMB, with improved economic data and rising policy expectations bolstering the currency [1][2]. - The trade surplus of China exceeded $1 trillion for the first time in the first eleven months, and the performance of the Chinese capital market has attracted continuous foreign investment, increasing demand for the RMB [1][2]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Predictions - The recent appreciation of the RMB is expected to lead to increased seasonal demand for foreign exchange settlements among export enterprises as the year-end approaches [2]. - Experts suggest that the RMB's continued strength will enhance the attractiveness of the domestic capital market to foreign investors, directly increasing foreign exchange earnings [2]. - Despite the recent appreciation, experts predict that the RMB will continue to fluctuate around the 7.0 level, with a low probability of rapid unilateral appreciation [3]. Group 3: Recommendations for Enterprises - Export enterprises are advised not to bet on a unilateral trend in the RMB exchange rate but to focus on their core business and utilize foreign exchange derivatives to manage exchange rate risk [3]. - Companies, especially those with foreign business dealings, should actively develop systematic exchange rate risk management capabilities and incorporate exchange rate fluctuations into their daily operational decisions [3]. - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes maintaining the RMB exchange rate's basic stability at a reasonable and balanced level, reflecting a policy orientation to prevent both excessive depreciation and appreciation of the currency [3].