政策、市场促进产能加速去化，生猪行业2026年新周期起点可期

Core Viewpoint - The pig farming industry in China is facing a challenging environment in 2025, characterized by supply-demand imbalance, declining prices, and expanding losses, leading to a significant restructuring of the industry [1] Industry Status: Supply High and Losses Widen - In 2025, the overall supply of pigs remains high, exacerbating market supply-demand conflicts, with a total pig output of 530 million heads in the first three quarters, a slight increase of 1.85% year-on-year [2] - As of the end of Q3 2025, the national pig inventory reached 43.68 million heads, an increase of 2.3% year-on-year and 2.9% quarter-on-quarter [2] - The core issue of high supply is that the breeding sow inventory remains above the reasonable level, with 40.35 million heads as of September 2025, exceeding the reasonable holding level by 3.5% [2] - The oversupply has led to a downward trend in pig prices, which fell from 15-16 CNY/kg at the beginning of the year to around 11-12 CNY/kg in Q4 2025 [2] - The decline in prices has pushed farming profitability into the loss zone, with average losses per head reaching 122 CNY by November 2025 [3] Impact on Farmers and Enterprises - The widening losses are straining the cash flow of small and medium-sized farmers, while some leading listed companies are responding by cutting capital expenditures and reducing sow inventories [6] - The price of piglets has significantly dropped, with 7 kg piglets selling for 209 CNY/head, well below production costs [6] Policy and Market Dynamics Driving Capacity Reduction - The continuous decline in pig prices has led to widespread losses in the industry, but 2026 may bring a turning point due to the combined effects of policy and market forces [8] - Policy measures are becoming a key driver for capacity reduction, with the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs emphasizing "anti-involution" and capacity control [8] - Leading enterprises are proactively reducing production capacity by halting new pig farm constructions and culling inefficient sows [8] - Market forces are also compelling capacity reduction, as the willingness of farmers to replenish stock has dropped significantly, with a 1.1% month-on-month decrease in sow inventory in October 2025 [9] Historical Context and Future Outlook - Historically, when both piglet and fat pig prices are low, capacity reduction accelerates, and the current conditions meet this criterion [12] - The industry is experiencing significant cost differentiation, with leading companies achieving lower production costs compared to smaller firms, which is driving further industry concentration [12] - By 2026, the industry may see a new cycle beginning, with supply pressures easing and potential price increases anticipated in the latter half of the year [13] - The current phase of losses and peak capacity typically indicates the establishment of an upward trend for the sector, suggesting investment opportunities as valuations remain low [14]