纯碱基本面变化有限 短期盘面预计区间震荡为主

Group 1 - As of December 25, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers is 1.4385 million tons, a decrease of 61,900 tons from the previous week, representing a decline of 4.13% [1] - Light soda ash inventory is 735,500 tons, an increase of 6,300 tons week-on-week, while heavy soda ash inventory is 703,000 tons, a decrease of 68,200 tons [1] - On December 25, the price of light soda ash from Jiangsu Kunshan Jinggang decreased to 1,350-1,370 RMB/ton, while Jiangsu Jingshen Chemical's light soda ash price remained stable at 1,300 RMB/ton [1] Group 2 - According to Caixin Futures, the demand for heavy soda ash is negatively impacted by the decline in float glass production, with the annual demand growth expected to be slightly negative [3] - Light soda ash demand is anticipated to continue growing due to the expansion of lithium carbonate production capacity and improved exports, although the large base of soda ash production capacity will pressure cost lines [3] - Zhengxin Futures indicates that short-term commodity sentiment is decent, but fundamental changes in soda ash remain limited, with a mid-term trend expected to maintain a bearish outlook amid a supply surplus [3]