中信证券：预计2026年10年国债收益率区间预计为1.5%-1.8%，节奏或呈现先下后上

Core Viewpoint - Citic Securities predicts that the yield center for China's 10-year government bonds will decrease by 10 basis points in 2026, maintaining a fluctuation range of around 30 basis points, compared to the 1.6%-1.9% range expected for 2025 [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - The central economic work conference continues to signal a moderately loose monetary policy, with an expected policy rate reduction of about 10 basis points [1] - The central bank's report in Q3 2025 emphasizes maintaining reasonable interest rate relationships, suggesting that the decrease in the 10-year government bond yield center will align with policy rate adjustments [1] Group 2: Market Volatility - Interest rate bonds are expected to maintain a "low interest rate + high volatility" pattern, with anticipated fluctuation levels similar to those in 2025 [1] - Factors such as changes in central bank operations, the stock-bond seesaw effect, and regulatory uncertainties significantly amplified interest rate volatility in 2025, and these disturbances are not fully resolved for 2026 [1] Group 3: Interest Rate Trends - The interest rate is expected to exhibit a "two-phase" characteristic: a downward trend from the beginning of the year to mid-year due to anticipated policy easing, followed by potential upward pressure in the latter half of the year as inflation rebounds and local government debt issues are resolved [1]