跌停也摁不住！国投白银LOF溢价仍高达45%

Core Viewpoint - The surge in silver futures funds has led to a bubble that is beginning to show signs of bursting, as evidenced by the recent trading activities of the Guotou Silver LOF fund, which experienced a sharp decline after a period of rapid price increases [1][4][5]. Group 1: Fund Performance and Market Dynamics - On December 25, the Guotou Silver LOF fund faced a trading halt and subsequently hit the daily limit down, with an internal price of 2.804 yuan, reflecting a premium rate of 45.45% over its net asset value of 1.9278 yuan [4][5]. - The fund's price surged by 120% over the past month, driven by speculative trading and a unique arbitrage mechanism that attracted many investors [1][10]. - The COMEX silver futures price increased by 42.14% from November 24 to December 24, while the Guotou Silver LOF's internal price rose by over 127.61% during the same period [4][5]. Group 2: Risk Management and Investor Behavior - The Guotou Silver LOF has issued multiple risk warnings regarding its high premium rates, advising investors to be cautious of potential losses from blind investments in high-premium fund shares [3][5][8]. - The fund's management has implemented restrictions on the investment amounts for A-class shares, limiting periodic investments to 100 yuan starting December 29 [3][10]. - Despite the warnings and restrictions, investor enthusiasm remains high, with many seeking to capitalize on the arbitrage opportunities presented by the fund's unique structure [10][11]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the recent price corrections are a normal market adjustment due to excessive speculative buying, indicating that irrationally high premiums cannot persist indefinitely [9][12]. - The ongoing high premium rates are attributed to concentrated demand for the fund, limited supply due to purchase restrictions, and the inherent delays in the LOF arbitrage mechanism [12][14]. - Long-term, the fundamental supply-demand balance for silver and macroeconomic factors such as interest rate cycles are expected to support the strategic value of silver assets, despite short-term volatility [15].