Core Viewpoint - The current report from the CICC macro asset team suggests that the Federal Reserve remains in a loose monetary cycle, and the U.S. economy is facing stagflation, indicating that the gold bull market may continue until a turning point in U.S. policy and economy is observed [1] Group 1: Gold Market Outlook - The gold bull market may not have ended as the Federal Reserve's policies and the U.S. economy have not shown signs of a turning point [1] - Market volatility is expected to increase as gold prices have diverged from fundamental indicators, making specific price predictions challenging [1] - A potential turning point is anticipated in early 2026, where rising inflation and marginal economic improvement may lead the Federal Reserve to slow its easing pace, which could temporarily pressure gold prices [1] Group 2: Factors Supporting Gold Prices - Gold prices recently surpassed $4,500 per ounce, reaching a historical high due to three main factors: 1. The Federal Reserve's resumption of the easing cycle, having cut rates three times by 25 basis points each and planning to purchase short-term government bonds starting in December [2] 2. A decline in the credibility of the U.S. dollar, with the fiscal deficit rising to around 6% post-pandemic, leading to increased debt risks and concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve [2] 3. Escalating global geopolitical risks, including U.S. sanctions on Venezuelan oil exports and ongoing tensions in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which enhance gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [3] Group 3: Silver Market Dynamics - Silver prices have seen even greater increases than gold, influenced by industrial supply and demand factors [3] - The demand for silver is expected to rise in sectors such as photovoltaics, new energy vehicles, and electronic equipment, while supply expansion remains limited, leading to tighter supply-demand dynamics [3]
中金：维持超配黄金但淡化黄金价格点位预测