光大期货：12月26日能源化工日报

Oil Market - WTI and Brent crude oil futures closed higher, with SC2602 at 444.7 CNY/barrel, up 1.7 CNY/barrel, a 0.38% increase [12] - Russia's oil and condensate production is expected to remain stable at approximately 516 million tons, or about 10.32 million barrels per day, for 2024 [12] - ING forecasts an oil surplus exceeding 2 million barrels per day by 2026 due to OPEC+ gradually lifting supply cuts [12] Fuel Oil - The main contract for fuel oil FU2603 rose by 0.61% to 2489 CNY/ton, while low-sulfur fuel oil LU2603 increased by 0.33% to 3016 CNY/ton [13] - Fujairah fuel oil inventory decreased by 2.247 million barrels (17.38%) to 10.681 million barrels [13] - The low-sulfur fuel oil market is expected to see a decline in imports from Western markets for the first time in three months, providing some support [13] Asphalt - The main contract for asphalt BU2602 increased by 0.17% to 2995 CNY/ton [14] - Domestic asphalt production is projected to be 2 million tons in January 2026, a decrease of 15.8 thousand tons (7.3%) month-on-month [14] - Despite strong cost support due to geopolitical tensions, weak terminal demand is hindering refinery shipments [14] Rubber - The main contract for rubber RU2605 rose by 80 CNY/ton to 15730 CNY/ton, while NR main contract also increased by 80 CNY/ton to 12695 CNY/ton [15] - Thailand's natural rubber exports totaled 4 million tons in the first 11 months, a year-on-year increase of 4.6% [15] - Domestic rubber production is entering a cessation period, with expectations of continued raw material price declines [15] PX & PTA & MEG - TA605 closed at 5152 CNY/ton, up 1.14%, while PX futures closed at 7358 CNY/ton, up 0.88% [16] - The operating rate for ethylene glycol in mainland China is at 72.15%, a slight increase of 0.18% [16] - Demand is in a seasonal downturn, with limited price support expected for PX and TA [16] Methanol - Methanol prices in Taicang are at 2145 CNY/ton, with CFR China prices ranging from 246 to 250 USD/ton [17] - Domestic production remains stable at high levels, while Iranian supply is low [17] - The overall demand for methanol is expected to weaken, leading to price stability at the bottom [17] Polyolefins - Mainstream prices for polypropylene in East China are between 6050 and 6250 CNY/ton, with production margins negative across various production methods [18] - PE prices have decreased compared to last week, with HDPE at 7011 CNY/ton, down 177 CNY/ton [18] - Overall, the polyolefin market is expected to maintain a volatile performance due to weak fundamentals [18] PVC - PVC prices in East China are stable, with prices for calcium carbide method ranging from 4440 to 4580 CNY/ton [19] - Domestic real estate construction is expected to slow down, leading to a gradual decrease in demand for pipes and profiles [19] - The overall market is expected to remain weak, with prices stabilizing at the bottom [19] Urea - Urea futures prices are stable, with the main contract closing at 1740 CNY/ton, a 0.46% increase [20] - The industry daily production is at 193,200 tons, with a slight increase of 130 tons [20] - Market expectations for January's pricing results and export policy changes are influencing price stability [20] Soda Ash - Soda ash futures prices are stable, with the main contract closing at 1184 CNY/ton, a 0.51% increase [21] - Industry operating rates and production have decreased, while inventory levels are also declining [21] - The market is entering a phase of negotiation, with both supply and demand showing signs of decline [21] Glass - Glass futures prices are stable, with the main contract closing at 1047 CNY/ton, a 0.38% increase [22] - The average price of float glass in the domestic market is 1076 CNY/ton, showing a slight decrease [22] - The market is experiencing a balance of supply and demand, with limited driving forces for price movements [22]